The odds of a bet is certainly a coefficient by which you will multiply your stake to know your gain, but it is also and above all the representation of something more important: a probability.
Understanding how to get odds from a probability or get the opposite, i.e. the odds of a odds, is probably one of the first steps to finding a value bet, i.e. a bet with a positive expectation of gain — as a reminder, playing values bet is the only way to win bets on the long term.
It should be noted that sports betting consists of evaluating the odds with a soccer betting guide or probability of an event (the victory of a football team or a tennis player for example). To translate this probability, bookmakers use odds to facilitate the use of bets.
A PROBABILITY: WHAT IS IT?
Risk is an integral part of our lives. For instance, what are my chances of not missing my train? What is the probability of rain tomorrow? The probability is measured on a scale from 0 (which means there is no chance for the event to happen) to 1 (which corresponds to the absolute certainty that an event occurs).
The face-to-face game is a simple and effective way of explaining probabilities. When throwing a coin, it will inevitably fall on the pile or face. This is a certain event with a probability of 1 (100% chance that the coin will fall on stack or face). Obviously, as a soccer bettor, you want to know the probability that your coin falls on your choice, for example, the pile side. You should make use of site for football predictions statistics to enhance your opportunity of winning your bets.
Probability = favorable results / all possible outcomes
As a bettor, you will like to know your chances of winning and therefore the chances that the coin falls on the stack (the favorable result). Thus, it is enough to divide the number of favorable results by the number of possible total results.
So here we get the probability = 1/2 = 0.5
In general, we express a percentage probability; by multiplying the probability of your event (here 0.5) by 100, we can say that there is a 50% chance that the coin falls on the stack and that our event is realized to win our bet.
Find the odds from the probability
The odds are the default format used by bookmakers, and you can find the odds from the probability with this simple equation:
Rating = 1 / probability of your chosen outcome
Thus, the odds of a coin falling on its face is one divided by the probability that it will occur, i.e., 0.5. The result is a decimal point of 2.0 (rating = 1 / 0.5 = 2)
Find the probability from the dimension
Now you can also take the odds and perform the inverse calculation to find the probability.
Probability = 1 / Rating
For example, if the bookmaker offers you a rating of 3 for a given event, then that means that he estimates the probability of the event to be 1/3 = 33%. If your personal analysis of the event tells you that the probability is actually higher, then you have found a value bet.
The rating allows you to know your gain
Calculating odds and probability opens doors for you to find a value bet, and it also allows you to know the gain of your bet. For our stack or flip example, the multiplication is simple:
Earnings = Bet Per Side
Thus, if you bet $10 on a bet with odds of 2.0, your win (bet included) will be $10 * 2 equals $20 (this includes your bet of $10 + gain of $10).
Conclusion
Understanding where the odds come from is an essential key to your evolution as a soccer bettor. Indeed, it allows you to translate the odds offered by the bookmaker into a probability. Your job is then to determine your own likelihood of the event. If your probability is higher than the bookmaker, then you have found a value bet. However, playing values bet is the only way to generate gains on sports bets in the long run.
Finding bet values yourself being a bit technical, you’ll have to do what is called tipster tracking. This means that you play the same football prediction for today and tomorrow as people who know how to find the right bets. By following their predictions, this allows you to generate gains over the long term. It’s a simpler way to play values bet.