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Analyzing Home vs. Away Performance in Football: A Guide for Bettors

Analyzing Home vs. Away Performance in Football

So, there is one team that is playing on the home ground and the other is the visiting team. Situation favors the home team a lot due to crowd support. A common notion will be to back the home team and bet in its favor. However, it is not the ultimate advice and the bettors must pay attention to other factors, too, instead of blindly picking the side that is playing on the home soil. Let’s understand how home vs away performance analysis can help in football betting.

More enthusiasm and higher testosterone levels

enthusiasm and higher testosterone levels

In a home match, the team is likely to play more aggressively. It has the support of the crowd too. Tests reveal that while playing in the home field, the testosterone levels in the home team members increase considerably. Hence, their aggressions helps them have better ball possession rate and high-yield dribbles. So, as a bettor, your task is to take a look at the home field performance pattern of the teams.

Was home ground the only factor? It is not practical though; the other factors such as presence of key players, motivation levels of the team members, team and management’s relationship will also matter. Hence, you have to consider all the on- and off-field conditions to determine that enthusiasm is real.

Team discipline in home vs. away performance

Team discipline in home vs. away performance

Match referee tends to have a softer corner for the team that is playing in the home field. The pressure from the crowd also compels the referees to give various decisions in favor of the home team. Some statistics for the matches played in the English Premier League during the years 1992 to 2005 look like this:

Red cards: 0.06-0.09, yellow cards: 1.1 – 1.6, penalties converted: 0.1-0.05 and goal average: 1.1 – 1.5

These statistics show that the situations were quite ripe for live betting and over/under bets. Also, the home team got more support from the referees during the game, that helped them have the best squad at the turf most of the time. So, when you have the team record in hand, do take a look at referee record also to find the probable outcome of an upcoming fixture where one team is playing at the home field.

Home vs. Away long-term performance for over/under bets

Home vs. Away long-term performance for over/under bets

Over/Under bets are where you guess whether the teams will score more or less than a chosen figure. It needs the data like how many times the home team has posted goals while playing an away team which was stronger in other departments.

The analysis of performance of both the teams in different environments can help find out if the situations are ripe for high or low number of goals.

An Over bet is likely to be successful when the teams have shown a lot of aggression and posted lots of goals in matches having similar environment in the past.

An Under bet is likely to earn you money when the teams are arch rivals and have strong defensive side. When both are equally inclined to show their best football tipsters game, the chances are the match will tie with only a goal or two on the scoreboard, or with nil goals.

Trend analysis of home vs away goal scoring

Trend analysis of home vs away goal scoring

How the teams have scored goals in home vs away matches is an interesting trend to analyze. The goal scoring trend is one of the important statistics to look for while analyzing home vs. away match performance.

You can do better by paying attention to the possibility of both teams scoring the goal. And in what conditions could they score goal need to be analyzed for a better decision-making.

The trends reveal that when the teams on the low side of the table are seeing each other, the goals scored are on higher side. Thus, while analyzing the home vs. away performance, take a look at the number of goals the teams have scored in various conditions. It also offers food for thought for over/under bet.

Apart from the goal scoring trend, focus on the latest form and performance of the teams too. The recent results and the trends in winning, losing or drawing a match in home vs away performance analysis help determine the outcome of the odd.

The team may have scored fewer goals but have managed to stand in front of a stronger team makes the case of the crowd support when in home ground. The support of crowd cannot be denied in this case.

Analyze attacking and defensive strengths in home vs away matches

Analyze attacking and defensive strengths in home vs away matches

Finding and analyzing the attacking and defensive strengths in home vs away matches can help understand which way the result of the match may be skewed. The ratings of attacking and defensive strengths of different teams are available in the football statistics database. These ratings help understand or predict how the teams will fare or what kind of fight they will put on in the upcoming match. This rating alone can help find over/under bet outcome and for other bets, a few other statistics are to be considered.

The team with attacking strength may tend to become more dominating in a home match but the result of the last few meetings between the teams should also be considered to predict the outcome of the bets like correct score, or winner of the match.

Top of the table vs the bottom teams’ matches may tend to become one-sided when the former is playing in the home ground. The attacking strength becomes more prominent and the support from the referee and the crowd also works in the team’s favor.

To sum up,

Analyzing home vs away performance in football betting is important for bets like Over/Under, BTTS, etc. The team playing in home ground has several factors in its favor. A little of discipline while playing can help the home team have better control over the match. So, when you are in a fix, take the predictions from the experts at footballtipster.net Their tips and data analysis can help make better decisions while betting in a football game.

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