Underdogs are the side which are least likely to win the game. So, the psychology behind backing the underdogs is usually surrounding the risk-taking ability. Those bettors who love to fade the public or have the ability to spot a fact that others might have missed may choose to back the underdogs. Listed here are some of the instances when betting on Underdogs can be beneficial or is worth the risk.
Reward to risk ratio is quite high
Underdogs are the teams that are given high odds of winning by the bookmaker. If you have got your research game correct, you may find that the bookmaker might have made a mistake while assigning the odds. The bookmaker’s underdog may not be the public’s underdog. The risk factor goes downside in such a case, but the reward value seems fascinatingly high if the bet is won. Thus, the psychology that better wins come from higher risks work behind choosing the underdog.
The decision of taking risk however should not come from a whimsical approach or an irrelevant fact. As a bettor, you can take a look at the previous meet record, home ground-away ground performance pattern and presence of key players in the team, etc. to understand the risk involved. Once all the parameters ring the bell and compel you to take the underdog’s side, you can take the call and hope for the best.
Fading the public does work sometimes
In case of public underdog, the bettors may tend to back the underdog. It is because of the contrarian strategy. The fact that most of the bettors are not as sound in making betting decisions as desired makes the case for fading the public. Statistics also show that only 20-30% of the bettor population tastes the success while betting. Thus, when you are backing a public underdog, you are going against the odd and boosting the chance that you might win.
As soon as the betting line is opened and odds are assigned, the trend tends to emerge. If one side gets all the attention of the bettors, then odds are lowered for the side in whose favor lots of money has poured in. But it may not be the correct side to back. Because the odds at this stage are based on the previous performance only. The performance of the team during the season, current roster quality, injury reports, number of away matches, etc. are some facts that affect the odd and may help you find good reason to go against the public and back the underdog.
Tendency to cover the loss
Winning a bet while backing the underdog is like catching a big fish. The reward is so high that it can cover a number of losses made. Thus, sometimes, the decision to back the underdog comes from the need to cover the loss made. Again, the bettor has to practice extra caution and ascertain that conditions are not amounting to chasing the loss only. In case of an underdog that is most riled up to win the next match due to a heavy loss recently, going for this side can be a wise move towards betting with an intention to cover the loss.
Sometimes, the favorite team which is a strong team is not that motivated to win the game. It chooses a game against a weak team to give rest to the key players and does not strategize much. The announcement of squad tells a lot about the attitude of a team towards the match. So, when the strong team is playing without the key players thinking the coming duel to be one-sided, you can choose this match to back the underdog and cover the loss.
Possibility of value in bet
Though the algorithm of the bookmakers is quite strong and the technology behind deciding the odds and lines has improved a lot, the result is still just a possibility. What is likely to happen in future is not certain. The bookmakers don’t have control over what happens in the ground. Thus, the situational analysis may open a window for value in a bet.
The value arises when the compare odds are too skewed and are backing the favorite a way too much. Winning of side backed by the bookie may not be that strong a possibility as predicted. It creates the value in bet and the bettor may benefit from the value created.
Betting markets that are different from match betting
The result of match is not the only outcome to predict. There are several betting markets that demand the bettor to guess just the number of goals to happen. In case of handicap, the underdogs are supposed to lose the match by a certain number of goals. It creates value in the proposition and the bettors may back the underdog as this side may show better game in the match than expected.
Similarly, in case of total number of goals bet, the punter may choose to bet on the underdog side to make a certain number of goals. It does not require to predict the outcome of the game or go with the favorite.
When the betting system aligns with your strategy
If the betting system delivers the same possibilities in favor of underdog as you expect, the confidence on the underdog increases. This betting system comprises a software that further strengthens the view by giving analysis of the past performances, and teams’ prevailing statistics and trends in performances. So, by choosing such betting system, the risk related to betting on underdog is reduced and the bettor gets a chance to win big.
To conclude,
The underdogs can pull off an upset; there is always a possibility, especially when the squad is highly motivated to do so. It also happens when the match is quite a crucial one and both sides have to give their all to be a winner. The bettor has to search for such possibilities to pick the underdog’s side. Also, the ability to cover the loss and to win high reward from going against the trend make good cases for backing the underdog. If in doubt, you can take tips from footballtipster.net and settle the dust.